Carlos Toledo
sandbox draft · not reviewed · page state: open / unsigned
Frontier path 05 of 05 · The commercial spine

Certified price formation

Five artefacts in this tree are the same object seen five ways: a price or dispatch you can hand a regulator with a certificate AND a refusal. The refusal is the differentiator and it is already wired.

Status — read this before anything below

Nothing on this page is claimed, certified, enclosed or proved. No kernel, no certificate, no falsifier, no ledger record, and no literature gate has run on it. It names a direction and what would have to be true. A prospectus that reads like a result is the defect, so this one says so at the top and is not published.

The one object underneath five artefacts

water-value on a scenario tree (stock-constrained price formation) · MPR's Gomes–Saúde clearing with the pre-update residual AS the convergence criterion · MWD's congested multi-population network equilibrium · stock-constraint's withholding trichotomy and its 20.39% welfare gap · and now the seaport reading, which is congestion-priced network flow calibrated on real commodity data.

Why the refusal is the product, not the caveat

A regulator's objection to any model-derived price is “how do I know this number is right?” Every incumbent answers with a methodology document. This tree answers with a certificate, and — when the comparison is not like-for-like — refuses to print a number at all. That behaviour already exists: roG prints refused · … (not like-for-like) with the budget error instead of a percentage, verified in both directions by re-rendering the page.

The clock and the blocker

ItemState
External deadline2 and 4 December 2026, the LRCAP auction dates. The commercial energy track is gated on the Python port and the certificate API only.
Interval transcendentalsBUILT — corrected 2026-08-04. This row read MISSING until today, and it was true when written. eqcert/src/transcendental.js now ships sound interval exp / log / sin / cos / tanh with a 93-check battery, 0 failures; its header names edge-of-chaos and aerospace as consumers. Fractional pow is still absent (eqcert/src/interval.js:94 still throws on non-integer exponents) and no battery has yet demanded it, so the narrow claim survives and the broad one does not. The blocker this page put on its own critical route is retired.
Rust kernelNamed in PLAN.md §5.3, not started. Do not send an aerospace report before it exists — an uncertified report under a certification brand is the one liability that cannot be repaired.

Scored, and the honest risk

N / A

N: ZERO and it does not matter here — nobody buys novelty. A: the highest of the five in commercial terms, unverified.

The deadline is the risk. A path with a clock will pull effort from the four that do not. Corrected 2026-08-04: this paragraph also named the transcendental blocker as sitting on the critical route and warned the path would stop at the wall aerospace stopped at. That half is retired — the library is built (see the table above). The clock risk stands; the blocker does not.